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Lagos, Lekki peninsula

Sand dredged from the lagoon and built on.

464.2 hectares changed — vegetation cleared · Before: 1 Dec 2017 – 15 Mar 2018 · After: 1 Dec 2023 – 15 Mar 2024 · 6.430, 3.680

BEFORE 2018-03

AFTER 2024-03

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464.2 haarea changed

150areas flagged

6,416 haarea examined

2satellites used

What changed, by type

141.4 haVegetation cleared

118.3 haNew vegetation

102.3 haBurnt ground

78.6 haNew water / flooding

23.5 haNew construction / earthworks

Land changes in both directions at once. SCOPE reports every type it measured, not only the one that makes the better headline.

What SCOPE found

Vegetation cleared — 54.5 ha
2.7 km west · between 7 Mar 2018 and 16 Dec 2023 · 95% sure

Vegetation cleared — 30.3 ha
1.7 km east · between 7 Mar 2018 and 16 Dec 2023 · 91% sure

Burnt ground — 20.7 ha
1.0 km west · between 7 Mar 2018 and 16 Dec 2023 · 93% sure

Vegetation cleared — 20.7 ha
1.2 km north · between 7 Mar 2018 and 16 Dec 2023 · 94% sure

New water / flooding — 17.3 ha
2.2 km east · 82% sure

How sure is this?

The strongest area (#1) has 95% confidence. It appears in 6 of 6 later clear images, so it is not a one-day artefact. Radar confirmed some of these areas; the others rest on optical and seasonal evidence. Only 62% of the area had clear optical views, so some change may be hidden by cloud. Note: One optical window has a single clear acquisition; persistence checks are weaker. Confidence measures how strong the evidence for real surface change is; it does not identify the cause or who did it.

How it was measured

SCOPE used Sentinel-2 optical imagery at 10 m, cloud-masked and combined over each period, Sentinel-1 radar as an independent check , and the same season in earlier years so normal seasonal change is not reported as real change. The analysis took 19 seconds.

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