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Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The reservoir filling behind Africa's largest hydroelectric dam.

981.2 hectares changed — new water / flooding · Before: 1 Nov 2018 – 28 Feb 2019 · After: 1 Nov 2023 – 28 Feb 2024 · 11.215, 35.093

BEFORE 2019-02

AFTER 2024-02

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981.2 haarea changed

27areas flagged

10,020 haarea examined

2satellites used

What changed, by type

925.0 haNew water / flooding

50.4 haNew construction / earthworks

3.5 haunclassified

2.3 haVegetation cleared

Land changes in both directions at once. SCOPE reports every type it measured, not only the one that makes the better headline.

What SCOPE found

New water / flooding — 901.9 ha
3.2 km south-west · 81% sure

New construction / earthworks — 18.7 ha
4.8 km north-west · 86% sure

New construction / earthworks — 9.2 ha
1.6 km north-west · 86% sure

New construction / earthworks — 7.1 ha
1.8 km west · 84% sure

New construction / earthworks — 3.7 ha
4.3 km north-west · 83% sure

How sure is this?

The strongest area (#1) has 81% confidence. It appears in 6 of 6 later clear images, so it is not a one-day artefact. Radar could not confirm or rule them out (normal for vegetation changes), so the result rests on repeated clear optical views and the seasonal comparison. Only 0% of the area had clear optical views, so some change may be hidden by cloud. Note: Optical imagery was unusable (cloud); results rely on Sentinel-1 radar only. Confidence measures how strong the evidence for real surface change is; it does not identify the cause or who did it.

How it was measured

SCOPE used Sentinel-2 optical imagery at 10 m, cloud-masked and combined over each period, Sentinel-1 radar as an independent check , and the same season in earlier years so normal seasonal change is not reported as real change. The analysis took 15 seconds.

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