Aral Sea eastern basin

What is left of the eastern lobe of the Aral Sea.

5,177.5 hectares changed — water gone · Before: 1 May 2017 – 31 Aug 2017 · After: 1 May 2023 – 31 Aug 2023 · 45.000, 59.500

BEFORE 2017-08

AFTER 2023-08

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5,177.5 haarea changed

112areas flagged

10,020 haarea examined

2satellites used

What changed, by type

3,856.1 haWater disappeared

1,085.2 haNew water / flooding

136.7 haNew construction / earthworks

69.4 haVegetation cleared

30.1 haunclassified

Land changes in both directions at once. SCOPE reports every type it measured, not only the one that makes the better headline.

What SCOPE found

Water disappeared — 3,856.1 ha
3.0 km east · 86% sure

New water / flooding — 901.4 ha
4.1 km west · 82% sure

New construction / earthworks — 70.0 ha
4.1 km north · 83% sure

New water / flooding — 50.1 ha
6.2 km south-west · 78% sure

New water / flooding — 21.9 ha
3.7 km south-west · 80% sure

How sure is this?

The strongest area (#1) has 86% confidence. It appears in 6 of 6 later clear images, so it is not a one-day artefact. Radar could not confirm or rule them out (normal for vegetation changes), so the result rests on repeated clear optical views and the seasonal comparison. Only 0% of the area had clear optical views, so some change may be hidden by cloud. Note: Optical imagery was unusable (cloud); results rely on Sentinel-1 radar only. Confidence measures how strong the evidence for real surface change is; it does not identify the cause or who did it.

How it was measured

SCOPE used Sentinel-2 optical imagery at 10 m, cloud-masked and combined over each period, Sentinel-1 radar as an independent check . The analysis took 33 seconds.

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